This interview originally aired on In the Moment on SDPB Radio.
South Dakota has seen higher-than-average amounts of snowfall this winter. Twice, a storm has dumped over a foot of snow on parts of the state.
So, what happens when all of that melts?
Laura Edwards is South Dakota's state climatologist. She joins to discuss which areas are at a higher risk of flooding this spring and what extreme weather could cause a repeat of the 2019 floods.
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Lori Walsh:
So it has happened twice, twice this year, the wintery sky opened up and dumped more than a foot of snow on parts of the state. With spring hopefully just around the corner, what happens when all that white stuff melts? Laura Edwards is the South Dakota State Climatologist, and she's with us now to talk about what's ahead for us. Dr. Edwards, welcome back. Thanks for being here.
Laura Edwards:
Hi, great. Great to visit with you again.
Lori Walsh:
It's not my imagination, there's a lot of snow, right? Or am I just tired of it and therefore it seems like a lot? How do you measure this in context of other winters?
Laura Edwards:
Yeah, there really is a lot of snow on the ground, especially in the Eastern/Southeastern part of the state, a very snowy December and January in the Southeast. Northeast wasn't as snowy in January, but here, the last couple, few weeks, we sure have rebounded back into a snowier pattern. And our snow on the ground is more than average, more than typical for this time of year, at least when we're looking at east of the Missouri River, and that North Central part of the state, we have anywhere from 4 to 15 inches more snow on the ground than we typically have for this time of year.
Lori Walsh:
All right. So March is often a very high precipitation month. What do we know about whether or not we're done with precipitation or what we've got ahead of us?
Laura Edwards:
Yeah, we have a couple of things. Just in the near term, in the next week or so, we're looking at an active weather pattern this week with continued chances of snow most of the next week, cooler than average temperatures, so certainly that means snow more than rain, and so our snow season isn't quite done yet. But as we get deeper into March, our temperatures are warming up, so hopefully the snow pack can melt too, hopefully gradually and slowly, not too fast, when we're thinking about the flood situation. But yeah, as we get into that spring season, our monthly precipitation increases now this time of year with May and June being our wettest months of the year.
Lori Walsh:
All right. So what about that flood outlook? What do we know and what do we not know yet?
Laura Edwards:
One of the factors underlying all the snow pack is very dry soils from the drought situation we've had the last couple of years, and that's really true statewide. And so we've seen a couple of warmer periods where our snow did start to melt and we saw our frost depth under the snow pack really isn't very deep, it's only a couple of inches in some areas, it did thaw out down in the Southeast already one time. So good news is the soils can take up a lot of moisture when we do see the snow melt. So we're looking at really the highest risk of flooding in the Big Sioux River up in that Watertown/Castlewood area, maybe down to Brookings. But across the James River Valley where we often see flooding, a near normal risk of flooding, nothing really exceptionally leaning towards flooding in that area, and true across the North and the West because again, our soils are so dry.
The only factor that we hope does not happen is if we see a heavy rain event on top of snow, and that's what we saw in 2019 down in the South, with that big flood that started off that spring season in 2019. But barring that, some event like that, really not looking at really widespread flooding, with the exception of maybe that upper Big Sioux River area.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. How important is a slow melt? Aside from a big rainfall event, the speed of the snow melt or of the thaw is how important?
Laura Edwards:
Yeah, yeah, and so we hope for days that are warmer, above freezing, and then cooler nights that get below freezing again so we can get some melt during the day and then temperate with those cooler temperatures at night when we get into that snow melt season. But for now, for the coming week, we look at really mostly snow still accumulating, and so last chances for snowmobiling, skiing, and I know a lot of people have already had some really great snow recreation seasons this year.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. No ice fishing, right? Help me understand, I live in perpetual fear of falling through some kind of ice. So I abandoned that early.
Laura Edwards:
Yeah, yeah. We have had some really cold temperatures. [inaudible 00:04:56] had colder than average temperatures for the most part for the winter, so I know there's been some good ice fishing out there.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah, yeah.
Laura Edwards:
But yeah, as we get into the smart season, yeah, it gets a little sketchy out on the ice.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah, be safe, be smart, and be ready for those extreme weather events because I think we've all learned by now they might be coming. Dr. Laura Edwards is our State Climatologist. We look forward to talking to you throughout the spring. As always, we appreciate your time today.
Laura Edwards:
All right. Thank you, Lori.
