South Dakota’s Republican U.S. House member Kristi Noem is facing the first challenge of her congressional career. By many accounts Noem is a very strong candidate, she comes from an agricultural background and her party enjoys a healthy majority in South Dakota.
Noem’s challenger Matt Varilek is largely seen as the underdog in this race. As a Democrat he faces an uphill battle from the start. But given this, some analysts say Varilek is doing better than expected.
If you’re forced to bet on a political race in South Dakota it’s generally agreed that Republicans get the odds of winning. While Democrats have done well at capturing offices, party registration is on a downward trend, beyond this the Tea Party did very well in the 2010 midterms. Ken Blanchard is a political Science Professor at Northern State University. He says in the case of the U.S. House race, Congresswoman Kristi Noem also has the advantage of name recognition.
“I doubt very much whether Varilek is able to catch up so I would be surprised if he is able to overcome the challenge that faces him in the time remaining,” says Blanchard.
Challenger Matt Varilek came to this race as a relative unknown. But some analysts say he is doing better than average and this race isn’t necessarily a given for Noem. Varilek is trying to make gains with TV ads like this one. It shows Noem in a congressional committee meeting with her head down looking at her smart phone at the same time the committee chair Republican Don Young expresses frustration that he can’t get her attention.
In the most recent debate, televised on SDPB, Varilek continues his charge that Noem is falling short in Congress by missing committee meetings. He cites congressional failure to pass a farm bill as evidence.
“Representative Noem, I can’t help but wonder whether or not we might be in this situation where the Farm Bill has not passed if you had been focused on this issue long ago instead of skipping out on those Ag Committee meetings,” says Varilek.
Varilek is attempting to exploit any perceived weaknesses in Noem’s record. But Pamela Carriveau a Political Science Professor at Black Hills State University says it’s not an easy sell. She says given the strength of Noem in South Dakota–any gaffe she may have made by typing on a cell phone during a committee meeting isn’t necessarily a game changer. Carriveau says Noem still has the advantage.
“Definitely--Matt has an uphill battle, especially for the most part Noem hasn’t done anything to really alienate South Dakota voters” says Carriveau.
In the most recent debate on SDPB-TV Kristi Noem fired back at Varilek–calling his charges a made-up issue. Noem touts her near 100-percent voting record in committee. She’s countering with TV-adds like this one.
Noem is also throwing some solid punches in the debates. Here she is on SDPB-TV earlier in October attempting to tie Matt Varilek to the politics of President Barack Obama.
“President Obama isn’t going to win South Dakota in this election and that’s because his policies are bad for South Dakota and our last debate that we had I asked Matt could you name three different reasons why President Obama is going to be good for South Dakota and why you’re voting for him to put him back in the Whitehouse,” says Noem.
We Americans love a good contest–it’s fun to watch a tight race with the contestants neck and neck, throwing elbows as they cross the finish line. But if the election were held today, it’s hard to know for sure how it would end up.
“I don’t know, I think this race is unpredictable,” says Bob Mercer.
Bob Mercer has covered politics in South Dakota for close to 30 years. He now writes for five different newspapers. In a recentcolumn he laid out some possibilities in this election--including the potential for Democrats to do better than expected. But Mercer says this race isn’t an easy read, especially when you look back at the 2010 election.
“In 2010 Kristi Noem didn’t get above 50 percent; she received 48 percent of the vote in winning the election, and there were six-percent of the voters who went to a third party candidate in Thomas Marking,” says Mercer. “I think this is totally unpredictable this year especially with the presidential race. A presidential race tends to bring out more voters who are as not politically attuned as the voters who come out in the off-year elections, and those tend to be younger, probably less wealthy and more likely to vote Democratic. So, all of those things I think help Matt Varilek,” Mercer adds.
So will Varilek overcome the challenge and pull off a photo finish or will Noem maintain a strong lead and land an easy victory? Experts note there is a lack of independent polling on this race. Analysts are sort of flying blind here as to the numbers. There is however one way to know exactly where South Dakota voters stand–-tune in on Wednesday, November 7th to find out.