This interview originally aired on In the Moment on SDPB Radio.
An unprecedented presidential election is taking shape on the horizon. Can we predict which boxes voters will tick in 2024?
Our Dakota Political Junkies take a look at voting trends and presidential candidates.
Plus, we explore why many Americans support political violence. The number is on the rise, and it has implications for the 2024 election.
David Wiltse, Ph.D., and Lisa Hager, Ph.D., are associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University.
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The following transcript was auto-generated.
Lori Walsh:
It's time for our Dakota Political Junkies conversation, and with us today we have David Wiltse and Lisa Hager. They're both associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University.
Dr. Wiltse, welcome back. Thanks for being here.
David Wiltse:
Thanks for having me.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Hager, welcome as well.
Lisa Hager:
Good afternoon.
Lori Walsh:
All right. Dr. Hager, let's start with you. Quick recap of yesterday's election, especially as we look across the country and see how states and voters with ballot initiatives are handling the overturning by the Supreme Court of Roe v. Wade.
Big news out of Ohio, they approved that ballot initiative, granting abortion access.
What are you seeing in what's happening across the state that is particularly relevant, Lisa, to what might happen in our legislative session and with our ballot questions next year?
Lisa Hager:
I think we're definitely seeing that voters are opting more for abortion rights, at least in some capacity, which indicates that Republicans really need to find a way to talk about abortion that is able to capture voters who are more centrist. With what we're seeing with this recent election, these outright bans on abortion do not seem to be palatable to voters.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. All right. We don't know if that's the case in South Dakota, but I bet next year we'll be talking about it.
Dave, anything else you wanted to add from nationwide elections that you think is particularly relevant to watch?
David Wiltse:
Well, with this abortion issue, it's clear that Republicans are just on the wrong side of public opinion on this. Abortion attitudes, there's a subtlety to them. It's not a simple, "Are you pro-life or pro-choice?" But when you drill down into the circumstances where people think abortion should be legal and circumstances where it should not, this is something that Democrats have an advantage on right now.
And up until the Dobbs decision, this just wasn't salient for most Democrats, mostly because they were benefiting from the status quo. But now that the status quo has changed, that's really changed the calculus of the people's attitudes in terms of the salience of the issue. Democrats care about it a lot more than they did before, and it really is clear that even in states that are pretty solidly red like Ohio is and like South Dakota is, Republicans will be loathed to really push this too hard because they are probably not going to like the results.
Lori Walsh:
So one of the things I think is interesting, Dave, is that on one hand, we have these deep polarizations where everything is simplified and pushed into a soundbite and people fall on one side or the other. And then we also have these super nuanced like, "Don't tell me it's as uncomplicated as this." It's complicated and we need to be talking about what policies work for us. Are those two things in contradiction to you?
David Wiltse:
Not exactly, because we're used to thinking of these things in terms of who are we going to vote for in terms of an election? And elections really are pretty coarse when it comes to any kind of inference on policy. People really do simplify their electoral decisions when it comes to choosing personnel for a particular office, but when you ask them to specifically vote on a policy as these kinds of ballot initiatives do, that's where you really begin to see the nuance come out and where people will depart from their normal partisan leanings in terms of their choice on the policy itself.
Lori Walsh:
Interesting.
David Wiltse:
So, I don't see that as inherently contradictory. It's just part and parcel with the differentiation between a policy question and a personnel question. And we overstate the role of policy when it comes to voting for political offices, and this just shows that voters are complex and when we're asking them to vote on specific issues, they are very willing to move against their normal partisan inclinations. But when it comes to individuals they're voting into office, partisanship really does rule the day there.
Lori Walsh:
All right, so let's talk about some new polls that have come out first. This is one that says nearly one in four Americans believe political violence is justified to save democracy in the United States. Lisa, when you look at this poll from... Let's see, it's the American Values Survey from the Public Religion Research Institute in partnership with the Brookings Institution Think Tank.
Are there things in here that you think are relevant? A lot of polls are going to come out between now and the 2024 election. Not all of them will be worth talking about as this one.
Lisa Hager:
I think this is interesting in the sense that we're seeing this creep up in numbers higher than what we've seen in the past. I think it starts to get into this conversation about the fact that President Trump is running for office again after the last election. We have the insurrection that took place on January 6th, obviously, which is a form of political violence that was taking place. So, I think this gets more attention than it maybe necessarily would in light of some of the current events that are happening currently or things that we may be anticipating happening in the future.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. Dave, what do you want to add to that about this particular poll?
David Wiltse:
This is just a consequence of the normalization of violent rhetoric in politics. And one thing that we have seen in the last five, six years, particularly from Donald Trump is this very coarse language, openly violent language in his rallies and these sorts of things. People begin to normalize it. People begin to internalize it.
And when push comes to shove, when they feel that there's been some kind of injustice done to them, well, they will open the door to these kinds of considerations.
And it really speaks to how norms of democratic governance really are being challenged right now. And when you combine that with some authoritarian impulses that a lot of these politicians are showing these days, that is a dangerous mix.
Lori Walsh:
The big takeaway is not so much that so many people said yes to this question, but that so many more people have said yes to this question than they did before. But here's a question I want to ask you, Dave, well, both of you really, but based on how they ask these questions. So, here's a question as they phrased it, "Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country." And then people answered that. But they never asked, "Are you a true American patriot? Would you resort to violence?"
That seems like an important nuance to me. What do you think of the questioning? You might say, "Oh, there's going to be true American patriots who need to do something." At the same time. You might say, "I'm going to work today, I'm not going to go do that." How many people would actually do it?
David Wiltse:
Well, I don't know how many people would actually do it in the end. That's not exactly the question, right?
Lori Walsh:
Right. Do you care about that question?
David Wiltse:
The question is whether or not we see this as something that is acceptable?
Lori Walsh:
Okay. I see.
David Wiltse:
And if you're answering that question in a positive way, you're basically condoning political violence. And they're really playing to a particular identity there. So, we know who they're asking that question to just by the phrasing of the question.
Lori Walsh:
Right, right. As pollsters, do you like the question?
David Wiltse:
I think the question is okay.
Lori Walsh:
Okay. All right.
David Wiltse:
I think the question is okay. I might change it a little bit. I haven't thought about it too much, but in the end, what they're trying to measure there is just how much people or how easily people might be willing to set aside these norms of non-violent democratic behavior. We're entering a dark territory there.
Lori Walsh:
Right.
David Wiltse:
When you have this high of a proportion of people saying, "Well, democracy is not the only game in town," and it's legitimizing the use of force for political change.
Lori Walsh:
That's sobering. Lisa, another poll by the New York Times and Sienna College is looking at former President Donald Trump as well as a candidate, basically 91 felony charges in four different jurisdictions. Haven't heard him as much as you might expect, but a conviction might. Tell me a little bit about what we're watching in Donald Trump's legal troubles and where voters are coming down on? Where is the line where they'll say, "No, we really need another candidate?" And Nikki Haley's coming on strong, by the way.
Lisa Hager:
Right. I think that's what is important in terms of watching what's going on with the legal battles that Trump is involved in. We've been talking about this extensively in my constitutional law and government powers class because we cover impeachment rather extensively. And with President Trump running for office again and seeing how the impeachments were not successful in terms of removing him from office. So at that point, we didn't have that conviction. And so now it's looking to see what does happen and how do voters respond in light of that. So, I think this is going to be extremely interesting moving forward.
So far, I would suspect that any sort of conviction is not probably going to move the needle that much. I think it's because a lot of people's reactions about what's happening to Trump is either that it's valid and that a conviction is likely, or that this is just, again, some of what Trump often said, "This is a witch hunt. People are just going after me trying to impede me from being politically successful." So, I think you're not going to change too many people's points of view there.
Lori Walsh:
I want to get one more question in here for you, particularly Lisa because you have studied women's path to power so extensively. As I read both these polls, there are lots of references to the masculinity of Donald Trump, how people appreciate his aggressive nature, and yet it's Nikki Haley who is a female candidate who is showing very recently a little bit of advancement with voters. What does she have to do based on what you've seen other female candidates do really around the world? What does she have to do to speak to voters who are also drawn to the masculinity as they perceive it of the other candidate?
Lisa Hager:
So, for Nikki Haley, I think she really needs to be focusing on some of these policy issues in particular that do tend to be considered more masculine. Things like economic policy and foreign policy. Everything that's going on with Israel and Ukraine, talking about that adeptly to voters I think will be extremely helpful for her in showing that she's a presidential candidate who can in fact handle those types of issue areas because that is the ones where people do tend to believe that someone with a more aggressive personality will be more successful.
Lori Walsh:
All right, lots to talk about in the future. Dr. Dave Wiltse and Dr. Lisa Hager are both associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University. They've been with us from SDPB's Jeanine Basinger studio at SDSU. Dave, thank you.
David Wiltse:
Thank you.
Lori Walsh:
Lisa, thanks. See you next time.
Lisa Hager:
Yep, definitely.
