This interview originally aired on In the Moment on SDPB Radio.
We take a look at what war abroad could mean for U.S. politics here at home. With a presidential election next year, we ask how the wars in Ukraine and Israel may impact national policy.
Plus, our Dakota Political Junkies analyze how Americans are talking about the Israel-Hamas war.
David Wiltse, Ph.D., and Lisa Hager, Ph.D., are associate professors of political science at South Dakota State University.
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Lori Walsh:
Well, we are spending today talking with people across the state, gathering their perspectives on fighting in Israel and Gaza. You heard from a Rapid City community leader with family in historic Palestine just a moment ago. We welcome Rabbi Alperowitz later in the hour for a preview of an event in Sioux Falls where a survivor of the Holocaust shares his story and warnings for us all.
And now we head to Brookings. We'll welcome our Dakota Political Junkies to the microphones. Professors and political scientists Dave Wiltse and Lisa Hager are with us from SDPB's Jeanine Basinger Studio at SDSU.
Dr. Hager, welcome. Thanks for being here.
Lisa Hager:
Thanks for having me.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Wiltse, thank you as well.
David Wiltse:
Good to be here.
Lori Walsh:
I want to start with a clip from President Biden's speech yesterday that kind of gets at one of the things I wanted to talk about with you both today. Here he is talking about some of the actions that he has already taken. Again, this is from President Biden's speech yesterday.
Joe Biden:
My administration has consulted closely with Congress throughout this crisis. When Congress returns, we're going to ask them to take urgent action to fund the national security requirements of our critical partners. This is not about party or politics. This is about the security of our world, the security of the United States of America.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Wiltse, let's start with you. Congress is in chaos. The House doesn't have leadership, at least at the time that I was prepping for the show. I didn't see any breaking news on that. Tell me how urgent the situation is to get some stability in how Congress does business.
David Wiltse:
Well, luckily, when it comes to these sorts of foreign policy things, Congress usually has a side seat to the President. They have influence in the long term, but not so much in the short term. So as far as the crisis goes and crisis management, I don't see this leadership fight as too terribly important, but clearly, they need to sort this out quickly. Last I heard, Steve Scalise did receive the nomination and they're proceeding onto a vote here rather shortly, but that could go any number of ways, given the last time around.
But in terms of the short-term effects on this crisis, most of what we're going to see from MCs on this is politicking. And we've already seen a lot of them start piling on the president blame for this crisis for any number of reasons, making rather spurious connections between our long-term policy in Israel and the short-term failure of Israeli intelligence on this.
So what I expect from them in the short-term is just more of the same. Just this kind of spurious politicking and issue-taking that really doesn't help anything in the end.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Hager, first, anything you want to add to that is helpful, and then also I'm kind of curious what kind of politicking, what kind of deal-making is happening right now.
Lisa Hager:
Yeah, so I would say the interesting thing to watch for moving forward is how this conflict that's taking place in Israel ends up overshadowing or competing with what's going on between Russia and Ukraine and the resulting types of conversations that are had once Congress is back in session and having to deal with passing a budget and specifically thinking about the National Defense Authorization Act.
Lori Walsh:
How does this impact presidential politics next year? The war in Ukraine, the fighting between Hamas militants and Israeli fighters. Both could have very long tails. Do we see it impacting, well, Ron DeSantis is already using it as a platform to gain attention. What do you think happens next? Either one of you can take that to start out with.
David Wiltse:
Well, I would say typically in presidential elections and congressional elections, foreign policy doesn't weigh in too much in terms of these short-term crises, particularly when the United States is not one of the primary combatants. So you will see candidates that are staking out these positions and making these claims like DeSantis and some of the others have. But that's more for their positioning within the primary constituency, and they're all basically going after the same people and virtue signaling in the same direction here. So in the end, I think it's going to be a wash. I don't see this having a dramatic impact on either the primary process or the general election in the end, unless, for some really bizarre reason, we get drawn into the conflict directly.
Lori Walsh:
Well, we already have warships nearby. How likely is it that we get drawn in? Help me understand the difference between what we're doing to show support for Israel in the military point of view vs. what we're doing to show support for Ukraine? Are there differences?
David Wiltse:
I don't see too many differences other than some of this positioning of that carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean right now. And I'm kind of stepping out of my area of expertise here, but typically when we've had conflicts break out between Israel and Hamas or Israel and Hezbollah, we've not seen a lot of direct American involvement in terms of our troops and our material being directly involved in any kind of conflict. It's more of just providing a stabilization force and trying to deter others who might want to be moving into some kind of perceived power vacuum.
Lori Walsh:
I want to talk a little bit about disinformation and what we're seeing happening in social media, particularly on Twitter. I mean, I haven't even opened Twitter today, Lisa, because I was afraid that I would see something that was just totally false and it would sort of seep into my knowledge base. So I've had really good media hygiene today, which is what I would recommend everybody does. But what are we seeing that adds to the conversation about polarization by the setup on Twitter, which is now X, and the new format there? What is it opening the door to?
Lisa Hager:
Yeah, so the biggest thing that I've seen when I'm on Twitter, X, I can't even keep up with what it's actually called half the time, but what I've been seeing are a lot of discussions regarding what information is true, what information isn't, what has actually been confirmed by Israel, what hasn't. And at least for me and my feed, I'm not seeing a lot of what they're actually talking about. It's more what's getting referenced. So I think that's the other thing, is just kind of seeing what it is that you're actually seeing and then just trying to practice good habits where if you are reading something that someone is posting, run a Google search, go to your favorite legitimate news outlet and see what's actually been reported and what's actually been confirmed before really engaging with it too much, and more importantly before sharing it or retweeting it and then having your opinion be solely based on something that could be potentially false.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. Final 30 seconds for both of you. What are you looking for in the days ahead, especially as what's happening in the Middle East reflects on either state politics or national politics? Dr. Wiltse?
David Wiltse:
I think we're going to see pretty much the same thing over the next few weeks that we've seen so far. People's partisanship is really driving their reactions to this, and unfortunately, this really isn't contributing positively to our media environment. I mean, like you say, with Twitter or X or whatever it's called, I mean, Elon Musk is amplifying neo-Nazis right now. So that really does kind of tell you where we are in this conflict and how the media environment and the social media environment really is pushing this in a really bad, bad direction.
Lori Walsh:
Dr. Hager, final thoughts? Last 30 seconds.
Lisa Hager:
I think we're going to continue seeing various folks who are running for the presidency weighing in on this, especially people like DeSantis who doesn't have a lot to speak on when it comes to foreign policy experience. So engaging in this conversation about what's going on is their way to show voters that they would have a plan, and this is how they would handle these types of issues when they don't necessarily have a ton of experience themselves.
Lori Walsh:
Political scientists and professors of political science at SDSU, Dave Wiltse and Lisa Hager, we thank you both so much today for this conversation. We'll talk to you next time.
David Wiltse:
Thanks.
