This interview originally aired on In the Moment on SDPB Radio.
This week's top political headlines intersect with top headlines in national politics. Dakota Political Junkies Tom Dempster and Jonathan Ellis are here with an analysis.
We talk about an upcoming visit from a former president and the new round of charges he faces. We also look at Attorney General Marty Jackley's call for a state legislator to return COVID-19 money.
Plus, a familiar South Dakotan face is now on the side of a racecar. What's that about?
Dempster is a former South Dakota state legislator. Ellis is co-founder of The Dakota Scout.
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Lori Walsh:
You are listening to In the Moment on South Dakota Public Broadcasting. I'm Lori Walsh. Well, let's talk about the new face on a NASCAR car, stock car, the charges against a former president and accusations of misused funds here at home. Our Dakota political junkies are with us for a roundup of the state political headlines, which happen as so often happens lately, intersect with national headlines. Tom Dempster is with us. He is a former state lawmaker. Senator Dempster, welcome. Thanks for being here.
Tom Dempster:
Delighted to be here.
Lori Walsh:
And Jonathan Ellis with the Dakota Scout, one of the co-founders there. Welcome as well.
Jonathan Ellis:
Happy to be here.
Lori Walsh:
All right, let's talk, I think the most newsy, timely conversation is the President Donald Trump indictment. Former President Trump has been indicted, but yet he's supposed to come here for an event in September. So Jonathan Ellis, I'm going to kind of kick this off with you. The Republican Party here in South Dakota and the relationship with the former president as it continues to evolve.
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah, I mean, he is scheduled to come to this fundraiser in September for the party. I suspect that he will raise a lot of money for the party because he remains fairly popular. And as Senator Dempster and I were talking before the show, each time it seems like he gets indicted his popularity among Republican voters increases. Kind of interesting. So unless the guy's in jail, which obviously doesn't happen after an indictment of this type, but I mean we would expect to see him in about a month.
Lori Walsh:
Another indictment and more serious indictment increases his popularity in South Dakota. Is that what I'm hearing you saying amongst his followers? Not amongst everybody, but...
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah, I'm looking at just the national polling that has taken place over the last several months since the beginning of the year, and each time something like this happens, his poll numbers increase. Again, we're looking at national poll numbers and these aren't state by state necessarily. But yeah, I mean he just keeps getting more popular every time he gets in trouble.
Lori Walsh:
Tom Dempster, what insight do you have about that regarding the state Republican Party?
Tom Dempster:
Well, I don't know if I have any insight at all, but don't take a look at Donald Trump as Donald Trump. Take a look at Donald Trump as a caricature. And every time he get indicted or every time something like this happens. I breathe deeply and I get stronger and look what all of these people are doing to me and I'm going to work on your behalf. And some time I think that balloon will explode, but in the meantime, the caricature gets bigger and bigger, more blown and more blown, particularly against some Republicans.
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah, I mean, to add to that, I think that what Tom's saying is correct in that he portrays himself as this fighter against the system that a lot of Republicans think is corrupt. And so they view him as sort of this vessel to combat what they think is a corrupt Department of Justice, the swamp. And so that's probably explains why for a lot of Republicans he becomes more popular.
Lori Walsh:
What's the impact of this long term?
Tom Dempster:
The impact of another Trump presidency long term?
Lori Walsh:
No. The impact of the indictment, the fundraising that comes naturally from the indictment, the attachment of the Republican Party in the state to this time in history because it will pass at some point and Donald Trump won't be central to people. Unless like Reagan, I suppose he's always going to be looming large in narratives and speeches. But long term, how long does this last? What's the tale?
Tom Dempster:
Well, Reagan looms large for very good and very fundamental reasons. But the stronger that Trump grows in the Republican Party means the Republican Party will no longer be able to attract the voters that they need in order to run presidencies and other races. I think ultimately this becomes very dangerous for the Republican Party.
Lori Walsh:
So Jonathan, who stays away then? So certain Republicans are going to come and they'll probably be a decent crowd in September if the former president does arrive, but other people will stay away from the party and if so, where do they go?
Jonathan Ellis:
You're talking about not going to the actual fundraising event or...?
Lori Walsh:
Yes.
Jonathan Ellis:
Or moving away from the Republican Party?
Lori Walsh:
Both.
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah. I think that there's a strong desire among a lot of Republicans that even if they want to go see him and pay money to go see him, to find a different nominee in South Dakota. I've said this before. If South Dakota's nominating process were earlier in the cycle, I don't think Donald Trump would've won the primary to become the 2016 nominee. I was at an event in November at the law enforcement dinner and Karl Rove was speaking about a generational change and a lot of Republicans stood up and clapped. They want somebody new. But I don't think that necessarily deters people who are interested in going to see the showman deliver a speech at the fundraiser.
Lori Walsh:
Is it dangerous to say that you don't like Trump in the state Republican Party right now? If people are standing up and clapping, clearly you are seen amongst your other Republicans. Are there risks to saying, no, not this guy. I mean certainly John Thune and Mike Rounds have said, no, not this man for president again.
Tom Dempster:
I would argue that most Republicans in South Dakota or many Republicans in South Dakota if they haven't already, are simply saying enough is enough, is enough.
Jonathan Ellis:
Add on to that in a morning consult poll that came out, I believe yesterday or the last couple days, showed that John Thune and Mike Rounds are among of the most popular senators in the country with their voters.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. Well, there we go. Okay, so let's talk about a popular governor, Governor Kristi Noem. A press conference down at Falls Park not too long ago where they unveil a NASCAR stock car. Am I saying that right? NASCAR stock car? That sounds weird.
Jonathan Ellis:
I had trouble writing that.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah, it just doesn't roll off the tongue well.
Tom Dempster:
Are you quoting Jonathan Ellis?
Jonathan Ellis:
I said race car, but NASCAR race car.
Lori Walsh:
All right. Well, it's a stock car and it has her picture on it and it says "Freedom Works Here". So let's talk about what her goals are right now for getting people to move to the state to handle the opportunities and challenges of a low unemployment rate. Is this the way to do it, Tom? Not just the car, but the "Freedom Works Here" campaign more broadly.
Tom Dempster:
Oh, the "Freedom Works Here" campaign and everything else since the COVID days, our governor has certainly been on the chase for celebrity. She's certainly won that chase for celebrity. It's very difficult to go any place in the country where somebody doesn't walk up to you and say, "I love your governor," or "I know your governor." And so despite raising eyebrows or despite maybe even eye rolls...
Lori Walsh:
Are you wearing a T-shirt that says Kristi Noem on it? Like people just approach you in random cities and say, "I love your governor?"
Tom Dempster:
No, no. When you talk to someone and they say, "Well, I'm from South Dakota." "Oh, I love your governor. Oh, I love your..."
Lori Walsh:
Okay.
Tom Dempster:
But you must admit, despite eye rolls sometimes, despite raising of eyebrows sometime in this ever pursuit of national celebrity, it appears to be effective in terms of bringing people to South Dakota and attracting workers that South Dakota needs.
Lori Walsh:
Yeah. Jonathan, what have your thoughts been about the "Freedom Works Here" campaign in its entirety? Yeah.
Jonathan Ellis:
In its entirety, I've heard some pretty positive reviews of it, that it's clever, that it's creative, that it's done a nice [inaudible 00:08:22]. And I want to clarify. I don't know that the stock car had her face on it. I think it did for the press conference, but I don't think the one actually running in the race does. I might...
Lori Walsh:
I heard that too. And I tried to verify that this morning and I couldn't find information about whether it was or wasn't. So I'm going to say I'm not sure whether the actual car has her face on it.
Jonathan Ellis:
You couldn't find it because it was in last place, which I kind of make fun of.
Tom Dempster:
Oh, stop laughing.
Jonathan Ellis:
I kind of make fun of that in the newspaper that's going to press today.
Lori Walsh:
The Dakota Scout, in case you didn't know.
Jonathan Ellis:
Aside from the NASCAR issue, I've heard some pretty positive reviews about the campaign in general. And let's just say South Dakota has had some interesting marketing campaigns in the past. This one's been fairly positive. Now of course, it features her in a lot of these ads. She's got the star power, I guess, after COVID. And of course there are some people who don't like the fact that she's... You hear some criticisms of that, that she's trying to take center stage in all of this stuff. But those are from the usual quarters you hear criticism of Kristi Noem. By and large I think that I've heard more positive feedback on this campaign for its creativity.
Lori Walsh:
I'm going to ask a question that I just know is going to go over like a lead balloon, but is this partially because she's a female governor, that people are going to accuse her of being ambitious, of wanting to have her face out there, of wearing the wrong clothes, of having the wrong hair? I mean, we hear a lot of these things and I'm getting the blank stares from the men at the microphones, but I have to ask. When people say she wants celebrity, is it that she wants celebrity or is it because we notice a female governor standing up and saying, "Look at me" more than we maybe would a Bill Janklow?
Tom Dempster:
That's a great question. And those comments that I hear about being female, about being attractive, about maybe wearing a prom dress to the State of the State, I never...
Lori Walsh:
That's just not nice.
Tom Dempster:
I never hear those comments from men. I never hear those comments from men. They're always from women.
Jonathan Ellis:
I'll piggyback on that.
Lori Walsh:
Oh, I know what you're saying about this because you said this to me before. You think it's the women who are mean to Kristi Noem and not the men.
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah. Yeah. I hear the majority of the derogatory comments come from other women, and that's just a fact. And she has throughout her career, even when she was running for Congress the first time in 2010. I was privy to the internal polling numbers and she has always lagged with women, always, throughout her entire political career.
Lori Walsh:
All right, what does she have to do then? If we stipulate to that, what does she have to do to win female voters, Tom?
Tom Dempster:
Ooh, I have, I have, I have...
Lori Walsh:
Oh, this is fun.
Tom Dempster:
Oh no, this is great. Lori, Lori, in politics I learned a long time ago that you don't have to answer every question that you're asked.
Lori Walsh:
Jonathan, if you were advising her on those polling numbers, what would you say she has to do to bring in female voters?
Jonathan Ellis:
Well, she's tried and...
Lori Walsh:
I'm going to help you out. Food tax?
Jonathan Ellis:
The food tax was something, but... You saw some ads. You saw some ads where she's had her mother and she's tried ads in which she's conveyed herself as being a strong mother. I think a lot of women like that. I mean, I think she's tried and it just hasn't always... Here's an issue too. I mean, more women tend to be democratic voters. And so...
Lori Walsh:
I don't know if that's true in South Dakota. Is that true? I mean, I'm asking, I don't have those numbers. Would we even try that?
Jonathan Ellis:
I would say a higher proportion would be, yeah. I'm not saying women outnumber men in South Dakota as democratic voters, but if you're looking at it proportionally.
Lori Walsh:
Well, we're slinging stereotypes left and right here. Let's go to Jessica Castleberry and see if we can get another one.
Jonathan Ellis:
She's not a Democrat.
Lori Walsh:
She is not a Democrat, but she is in a little bit of trouble because there was some COVID money that came to her daycare and now Attorney General Marty Jackley says it's time to return that money. She shouldn't have used it. As a former State Senator Tom, the intersection between her role as a lawmaker and how did she go awry of this?
Tom Dempster:
Serious question. How much time do we have left?
Lori Walsh:
Four minutes.
Tom Dempster:
Four minutes. Ooh. Picture two daycare centers in Rapid City. Picture them adjacent to one another. Picture them exactly the same size, exactly the same kind of revenue. One is owned by somebody else, the other is owned by a state senator. This daycare on one side gets $600,000 in COVID money. This other daycare gets $600,000 in COVID money, but oops, it's owned by a state senator. This is a conversation about increased scrutiny, fair enough. Increased jeopardy if you're foolish enough to run for public office and all of a sudden something that's going to cost you $600,000 as of your desire to serve the public interest. This makes it much more difficult for somebody to run for public office. Makes it much more difficult for someone to be attractive for the legislature, particularly when this individual gets thrown under the bus by the very person that appointed this legislator without any sense of saying, "Oh, I'm so sorry." Whether this was the state of South Dakota's fault, whether this is, I mean, who's to say? We will find these things out in the future for sure.
Lori Walsh:
Right. This is not done.
Tom Dempster:
This is not done.
Lori Walsh:
Castleberry said she was advised by her lawyer that she'd done nothing wrong. So she's standing up and saying this, no, this isn't...
Tom Dempster:
Exactly right, but thrown under the bus.
Lori Walsh:
What do you want to add?
Jonathan Ellis:
Just there was...
Lori Walsh:
She didn't run for office. She was appointed.
Jonathan Ellis:
And then she ran.
Lori Walsh:
I know. But then she ran. Right. And now she's saying, I read in the Dakota Scout this morning that she didn't respond. I think it's a Joe Sneve or Austin Goss piece, but she didn't respond to comments but people are saying she's not going to run again.
Jonathan Ellis:
Yeah, that's the goal. Of course, speculation there.
Lori Walsh:
Speculation, yeah.
Jonathan Ellis:
I mean, there's a Supreme Court advisory opinion that was fairly explicit that lawmakers couldn't take the money. There's a provision in the Constitution that has been interpreted very broadly by the Supreme Court saying that lawmakers can't take money. Quickly, I went back when Chris Lien was running against Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, I can't remember if it's '06 or '08, but one of the questions I asked him was, how come you didn't start out as running as a state lawmaker? And he said, well, my family highway construction has contracts. I can't. The Constitution prohibits me from running he told me. And so that has been interpreted extremely broadly by the Supreme Court.
Lori Walsh:
All right, we are going to leave it there. Tom Dempster, Jonathan Ellis, good sports all and wise political analysts. Go to dakotascout.com?
Jonathan Ellis:
.com.
Lori Walsh:
.com for Jonathan Ellis's work and more. Thank you so much for being here. We appreciate your time.
Jonathan Ellis:
Thank you, Lori. Good to see you.
Tom Dempster:
Nice.
