The first two months of 2021 have presented extreme warm AND cold temperatures. We had the ninth warmest January followed by a big drop in temperatures. Now forecasters predict a warming trend that could have a dramatic effect on South Dakota.
Warmer spring temperatures can increase drought and wildfire risk.
Becky Bolinger is a climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center. Bolinger says warmer temperatures can weaken the polar jet stream in the arctic circle causing sudden dips in temperature.
She compares it to a spinning top that wobbles when it’s poked.
“When you start the top wobbling, you don’t know where those waves are going to wobble down to but you know that they’re going to come, and so when that polar jet is weaker you’re going to get more of that wobbly effect and you’re going to have these deep outbreaks of cold be a potential.”
Bolinger says warm and dry conditions are likely to continue over the next three months.
Laura Edwards is the State Climatologist with SDSU Extension.
Edwards says winter in South Dakota is typically dry but April and May usually bring about 40 percent of the annual precipitation.
“That spring rainfall is going to be really important for a lot of us here as far as drought conditions go, especially for famers on the agriculture side. We do not have soil moisture carryover from last year, that can kinda carry us through the growing season.”
Edwards says vegetation from last year could increase fire risk if this year is too dry.
She notes the warm, dry outlook suggests a low flood risk for this year.