The interview with Kevin Woster, posted above, is from SDPB's daily public-affairs show, In the Moment, hosted by Lori Walsh.
My, how things can change for a politician.
Especially for a Republican politician, in the time of Trump.
Take John Thune, and the results of a recent poll out of South Dakota State University of state Republicans likely to vote in the U.S. Senate primary on — or before — June 7.
At first, I thought I must have misunderstood the survey question on Thune, because the results didn’t seem to make sense.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were held the day they were surveyed, 46 percent picked three-term incumbent Sen. John Thune. Ten percent chose Bruce Whalen, who was the GOP nominee for the state’s lone U.S. House seat in 2006, losing to incumbent Democratic Stephanie Herseth Sandlin by 130,000 votes. And Mark Mowry — who I wouldn’t recognize on the street if he called out my name — got 4 percent.
OK, but who got all the rest? Not sure.
No, I don’t mean I’m not sure. I mean they’re not sure. The Republican voters.
That was their answer: not sure.
Forty one percent said they weren’t sure who they’d vote for, between Thune, Whalen and Mowry.
Which was a surprise to me, somewhere just short of a shock.
I take the results of this poll seriously, by the way. The SDSU Poll is produced by the political science program within the School of American and Global Studies at SDSU. The poll was conducted between May 2 and May 15.
Now, obviously, the bulk of the 41 percent who said they weren’t sure on the Senate race are likely to choose Thune when it comes time to vote. Surely they’ll be more sure by then. You know what we say about political parties and their voters: Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line.
And in this case, they’ll fall in line behind the proven, well-funded candidate who is most likely to beat Democratic Senate candidate Brian Bengs in November.
Even in the topsy-turvy Trump era, Republicans usually come how to winners. And I assume Thune will end up getting about 60 percent of the primary vote, or more.
In today’s GOP, it’s get on the Trump train or else
But if nothing else, Thune’s underwater polling number of 46 percent shows that GOP primary voters, who tend to be dominated by the more far-right Republicans, are a bit aggravated and sending Thune a message. Which is:
“Big John, you’re just not Trumpy enough. Get on the MAGA train! And blow that whistle!”
Or something like that.
I would consider the tag “not Trumpy enough” to be badge of honor in the Republican Party these days. But then I’m a Never Trumper and RINO who has so far sent Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney $250 for her fight for re-election against a Trump-endorsed challenger in Wyoming. So I’m not exactly the core Republican primary voter, these days at least.
The majority of Republicans in South Dakota love Trump.
Those Republicans do not include John Thune. His lack of love for Trump is palpable, as is Trump’s lack of love for him. Again, that speaks well of Thune, not so well of Trump.
As most of you know, the hard feelings go back to the 2016 presidential race. Late in the campaign, following the release of an old Access Hollywood video in which Trump bragged about sexually assaulting multiple women, Thune joined then-Gov. Dennis Daugaard in calling for Trump to withdraw from the race.
What a gift such a withdrawal would have been to the party, to the nation, to the world, to the universe.
And in the Grand Old Party, the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower and Reagan, that likely would have been the end of Trump as a candidate, for anything, anytime, anywhere.
Hallelujah!
Instead, Trump stayed in the race, most Republicans fell in line and gathered around him and he pulled off a complicated, improbable victory against a much-better-qualified-but-flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton.
Along the way, Thune and his staffers took a pounding from their increasingly Trump-infected base for the senator’s call for Trump to withdraw.
If I had to point to a place where the Republican Party truly sold its soul to Donald Trump, it would be there, in the aftermath of the Access Hollywood blowup. Party leaders made a deal with the devil because they were afraid of his rabid base and at that late date in the race considered him, wounded or not, to be the best chance to win the White House.
Although most of them, in their heads if not their hearts, were preparing for a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Giving up the soul of the party
But the deal with the devil paid off, for the party if not for the country. They got the White House and a president willing to cut regulations and taxes, close borders, build walls, play to white fears of the browning of America, re-order the federal bench and load the Supreme Court with justices opposed to Roe v. Wade.
And also, to tear gaping holes in the already strained fabric of America, diminish public respect for the truth and facts and science and public education and the rule of law, and inspire two impeachments, among other sad developments.
Oh, and then there was that assault on the U.S. Capitol and the attempt to overturn the results of a legitimate presidential election. Republicans had a chance to retake their party for the good of the country during Trump’s second impeachment trial.
But despite Trump’s clear and central role in causing the Capitol riot — which Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell forcefully outlined and condemned during a Senate floor speech __ Republicans, including McConnell and Thune, voted against finding Trump guilty and banning him from serving office in the future.
Now he’s the likely party nominee for president in 2024, if he wants the spot.
Some things got a little better between Thune and Trump during Trump’s term in the White House. And Thune’s “not guilty” vote in the impeachment trials helped, too.
But things never got good between them. Whatever you think of his politics, John Thune is a gentleman. Whatever you think of his politics, Donald Trump is not.
Thune was never Trumpy enough for Trump or for Trump’s base. And when Thune rejected baseless allegations of a stolen election in 2020 and joined most other Republicans in voting to certify Joe Biden’s legitimate victory over Trump, Thune didn’t please the Trumpsters there, either.
Still, it’s hard for me to imagine the Jones County native falling from party favor. A former executive director of the state GOP, Thune was a popular, three-term U.S. House member who lost a hard-fought U.S. Senate race to incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson by 524 votes in 2002.
Thune’s golden boy status in GOP hurt by Trump effect
Two years later, Thune pulled off a victory that resonated throughout the nation, defeating third-term U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle, his party’s leader in the Senate, by 4,500 votes. Daschle, in losing, captured 26,000 more votes than Johnson had in winning two years earlier.
Republicans turned out to vote for Thune as they rarely had for any candidate before. He seemed, well, golden.
Thune came out of the Daschle win as the darling of the Republican Party here and across the nation. There was talk of a presidential run. He was a fundraising magnet here and in other states. And he began a climb up leadership in the Senate much as Daschle had worked his way up in Senate Democratic leadership roles, eventually to No. 1.
Thune is now No. 2 for the Republicans in the Senate, behind only McConnell.
But leadership comes with responsibilities that can sometimes alienate voters back home. Daschle found that out on a statewide level when he lost in 2004. It was especially complicated for Daschle, of course, as a Democrat in a Republican state, where independent and cross-over Republicans are essential to political survival.
It isn’t nearly that complicated for Thune, being a conservative Republican in a generally conservative Republican state. Before Trump, that is. Trump is hard to please when it comes to loyalty. He wants it to be total, and the more fawning the better.
Trump’s base is similarly demanding of other Republican politicians, from whom they expect complete-and-obsequious loyalty to their leader. When they don’t get it, they tend to throw tantrums, much as Trump himself does.
And maybe that’s all this 41 percent is, a tantrum against Thune by the Trump base in South Dakota. Tantrums usually pass, in typical 2-year-olds, at least. They seem to last longer for Trump, and maybe for the Trumpiest of the Trumpsters.
Beyond hard-core Trump base, Thune still ranks high
Meanwhile, Thune doesn’t seem to have lost much favor overall in South Dakota. As reported by my South Dakota Public Broadcasting colleague Lee Strubinger, Thune, is still very popular.
A recent Morning Consult poll had Thune as the nation’s most popular U.S. senator with voters overall in his home state. Sixty two percent of South Dakotans polled said they approved of Thune, while 28 percent disapproved and 9 percent didn’t have an opinion.
That’s of all voters — Republicans independents, Democrats.
Thune likely received some limited support from Democrats, more substantial support from independents and solid support from Republicans outside the hard-core Trump base.
Sen. Mike Rounds wasn’t far behind in the Morning Consult poll, by the way, with 61 percent approval, 28 percent disapproval and 11 percent without an opinion.
Thune might hit 62 percent when Republicans vote in the primary. But right now he seems to be more popular with South Dakota voters as a whole than he is with his own base. Which is, of course, the Trump base.
He’s just not Trumpy enough.
Gov. Kristi Noem is plenty Trumpy enough, however. Getting back to the SDSU Poll of likely GOP primary voters, Noem was the choice for 61 percent of those polled, with 23 percent not sure and 17 percent choosing Republican challenger Steve Haugaard.
Noem seems to love Trump, and has adopted some of his style. Trump seems very fond of Noem, too. Both love time on Fox News and other conservative media outlets.
Congressman Dusty Johnson landed in-between Noem and Thune on the SDSU survey, with 53 percent of likely GOP voters in the primary saying they would vote for him if the election were held that day. Thirty percent said they were not sure and 17 percent picked Johnson’s primary opponent Taffy Howard.
Sen. Mike Rounds isn’t up for reelection this year and wasn’t included in the survey.
Johnson lost points with the Trump base by voting to certify the election, refusing to endorse the Big Lie about Biden stealing the election and by differing with Trump on some key policy points that were consistent with Johnson’s conservative values, if not necessarily with Trump’s.
Johnson’s a lot lower profile politician than Thune, too, and isn’t associated with GOP leadership that can hurt candidates with the Trump base.
And in the age of Trump lower profile is not the worst place to be. I’m pretty sure John Thune would agree.
